| Will the search for new energy technologies require a new R&D mission agency? – The ARPA-E debate |
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bridges vol. 14, July 2007 / OpEds & Commentaries by William B. Bonvillian mp3 download 
William B. Bonvillian
Energy is a high-stakes problem for the US, with much hanging in the balance - energy security and resource dependency on the Middle East, climate change, economy-wide shakedowns from high cartel-imposed prices, disruptive trade imbalances, and macroeconomic trade costs. In response, some have advocated a Manhattan Project for new energy technology, or the equivalent of the Apollo Moon Program. But those famous projects were focused on single technologies to be set up in comparatively short-term multiyear projects, and were simple compared to the present energy technology challenge. The earlier technologies were launched for a single customer with the deepest pockets - the government sector - not for deeply imbedded, stratified, and highly competitive private sector markets. The energy challenge requires a very different development model in which a complex mixture of energy technologies must evolve over decades in the private sector. As some have noted, there will be no silver bullet for a short-term energy fix. An array of new energy technologies is needed. Some technologies have been tested at economic scale and are ready for demonstration and implementation, others require breakthrough research, still others need both breakthroughs and large-scale development. These technologies demonstrate that a new energy economy is possible in the US if we have the political will to make it happen. A key point is the need for many strands of technology development in multiple timeframes; there cannot be a single technology focus. And the new technology development system will need to maintain room for continuing advances over time - there will be 2nd generation batteries and solar panels, and then 3rd and 4th generation advances will displace their predecessors. So there must be opportunities to promote both incremental advances and disruptive new technologies: technological arterial sclerosis should be avoided. With a complex systems problem, multiple energy technology pathways must evolve over time. Each path will be different, although many will have to be complementary. This may be the most complex technology evolution problem the US has ever faced. Reaching the moon starts to look simple by comparison. Access to the full article is free, but requires you to register. Registration is simple and quick – all we need is your name and a valid e-mail address. We appreciate your interest in bridges. |
